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Community Corner

Opinion: Boston's Population Growth Masks Youth Migration

While Boston's overall population increased during the past 10 years, its under-18 population dropped by more than 10 percent. Why did families move out of the city?

During the past decade, more than 11 percent of Boston's young people - residents under the age of 18 - moved out of the city, according to the US Census Bureau. This, as the city’s 18-years and older poulation increased by 8.74 percent.

Analysis of the data has only just begun (and is subject to revision) but I have my own idea of what’s been going on.

At first glance, it might look as though it's simply a matter of parents losing faith in the Boston public schools, pulling up stakes and taking their kids to the suburbs. Or, perhaps it’s the ever-increasing cost of housing in the city that has led families to give up and move elsewhere.

My guess is that both of these things happened. But, according to neighborhood-level data provided by the Boston Redevelopment Authority, some of the largest changes, in raw numbers and percentages, happened in the city’s poorest neighborhoods. Something more drastic happened.

These six Boston neighborhoods (out of 17) had 15 percent or more drops in under-18 populations:

North Dorchester (-1,735, -24.16%)
Mattapan (-2,992, -24.39%)
South Dorchester (-3,101, -17.27%)
South Boston (-913, -16.81%)
Allston-Brighton (-1,055, -16.27%)
Roslindale (-1,220, -15.14%)

In addition, Roxbury lost 2,034 of its young, or 11.03 percent of its under-18 population.

I don’t think lower-income families who lived in these neighborhoods moved out of Boston during the past decade; why would they leave? Living in the city, they have access to subsidized housing and other city and state services, including convenient, low-cost public transportation.

Instead, what happened is that some of these families actually benefited from the good economy of the mid-’00s. As a result, they were able to migrate to other cities and states, basically moving up into the middle class. Similar to what Boston (and other urban areas) saw in the 1950s and 1960s, the families that could afford to leave the city, did. Those left behind were poorer, many of them first-generation Americans.

Meanwhile, five Boston Proper neighborhoods had increases in under-18 populations. (See accompanying photo for data.)

The percentage increase in under-18’s in the South End, Back Bay, Beacon Hill, and Central neighborhoods is very interesting. (“Central” is made up of the North End, West End, Downtown, and Chinatown.) Since these neighborhoods have some of the most expensive housing in the city, you would assume fewer families would have moved in (since most families want a lot of space). However, this didn’t happen; instead, wealthy couples moved back to Boston over the course of the decade and have remained in the city even after their children have reached school age.

In West Roxbury, overall population increased by 5.89 percent. The neighborhood became appealing to more “minorities” during the decade, with the number of people identifying themselves as “white, non-Hispanic” dropping more than 7 percent, according to census data. Those who moved into the neighborhood may very well have been families heading up the ladder from lower income to middle class status.

But, the situation as it stands today is unsustainable. The negative effects on Boston’s public schools of having fewer students (down 10 percent in a decade) will only increase over the coming years, if these trends continue.

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Not having to build additional school rooms is one thing; going the opposite direction is even worse; already we’re hearing of half-filled schools with empty classrooms. As more parents choose to enroll their kids in private, parochial, and charter schools, the Boston public school system will undoubtedly continue to suffer its ills.

At the same time, parents need to cut our elected officials some slack; they can’t expect the city’s leadership to turn on a dime and build (or close) schools on the fly, or as trends only begin to emerge. Things don’t work that quickly. Is the increase in the under-18 population in the North End, Beacon Hill, and South End permanent? Will the decreases in Mattapan, Dorchester, and Roxbury continue?

Whether we have the leadership we need during this time of transition in order to make education work for the remaining 103,000 children and their families is a fair question. But, it’s certainly not an easy problem to solve.

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